BUDGET OIL CASH WINDFALL Uganda Eyes Middle Income Dream as Shs144

BUDGET: OIL CASH WINDFALL! Uganda Eyes Middle-Income Dream as Shs1.44 Trillion Revenue Loom


Henry Musasizi delivered his first budget speech as Minister of Finance, Planning, and Economic Development on Thursday.The 84.4 trillion shilling 2026/2027 budget is aimed at implementing the government’s Tenfold Growth Strategy, aimed at growing to 500 billion dollars by 2040 from 53 billion in 2025.The economy is estimated to have grown by 6.4 percent to 69.3 billion dollars or about 250.4 trillion shillings, in nominal terms.The minister looks forward to the “imminent confirmation” in March 2027 of Uganda’s graduation from the category of Least Developed Countries (LDC.He targets lowering sovereign risk, unlocking premium international investment capital, and positioning the country as a highly competitive, self-determined economic engine on the continent.Also, the country is expected to start producing and selling oil starting early in the first quarter of the year, with 1.44 trillion shillings expected from oil revenues.This would end the 17-year wait since the government declared commercial deposits and its intention to join the oil club. He highlighted the need for the country to process and add value to its enormous mineral wealth.He reported that the evaluation of uranium, manganese, and lithium was also ongoing across the country.“To add value to Uganda’s limestone, a new clinker factory was commissioned in Moroto district to produce inputs for cement production,” he said.He reported that the government continued to make significant progress towards first oil.“The construction of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline and the Central processing facilities is at an advanced stage and nearing completion, “he said.He said implementing this year’s budget requires discipline. It requires accountability. It requires efficiency. And it requires integrity,’ he said.He told Parliament sitting at Kololo ceremonial grounds that the Government will undertake a comprehensive implementation reform agenda aimed at eliminating waste, corruption, delays, and inefficiency.According to the Minister, the government is implementing a ‘clean-up’- enforcement of the laws and regulations to ensure institutional effectiveness, leading to improved service delivery and public trust. Among his key priorities is the enforcement of budget discipline and accountability.“In FY 2026/27 going forward, as part of the performance contracts, all Accounting Officers will sign a budget discipline and accountability charter which provides for sanctions against breaches of accountability rules in planning, budgeting, and execution of public resources.”He also pledged to combat corruption through procurement reforms, digitisation, strengthening internal controls and audits, and ensuring transparency to facilitate accountability.He promised continued enforcement of trade order and traffic discipline to promote safe, orderly, and livable cities and urban centres, and improve the safety of public transportation and strengthen the governance, oversight, and performance of state-owned enterprises.Strengthening allocative efficiency by prioritising high-impact investments under the ATMS and their enablers, while eliminating wasteful expenditure.“To this end, as guided by His Excellency the President, state-funded celebrations on public holidays will be suspended except functions on religious holidays. Going forward, public holidays will be observed without official ceremonies,” saidOn the Minerals, Oil and Gas sector, a total of 473.51 billion shillings has been allocated with priority areas including: Continued mineral exploration, quantification and certification; Continue capitalisation of the Uganda National Mining Company; Establishment of mineral markets and buying centres; Operationalisation of the East African Crude Oil Project (EACOP); and Development of the oil refinery.So far, 11 trillion shillings have been put in the wealth creation initiatives, with PDM funds reaching more than 4 million beneficiaries by the end of June, according to the minister.Under the budget, domestic revenue is projected to increase to 45.6 trillion shillings from 35.7 trillion shillings that was realised in 2025/26, equivalent to 15.9 percent of GDP.On debt, the Minister said that as of December 2025, Uganda’s total public debt stood at U34.86 billion, equivalent to approximately 126.19 trillion, with external debt amounting to 15.84 billion, while domestic debt was 19 billion dollars.This translates into a debt-to-GDP ratio of approximately 53 percent.The budget will be funded by domestic revenues, including tax and non-tax revenues, as well as grants and domestic and external borrowing.Domestic revenue is projected to reach 45.6 trillion, comprising 40.1 trillion from tax revenues, and 4 trillion from non-tax revenues, while 1.4 trillion will come from oil revenues earmarked for budget support.The projected increase is expected to be driven by continued improvement in economic activity in the country, enhanced collections by URA through new tax policy measures, administrative reforms and enforcement, and the commencement of commercial oil production, generating first oil revenues.Borrowing from the domestic market through securities issuance is projected at about 12 trillion shillings, with a planned decline over the medium term consistent with the government’s fiscal consolidation strategy.On the other hand, external resources totaling 12.5 trillion are projected to support the budget, 1.2 trillion allocated to budget support, and 11.3 trillion directed toward project financing.The ministry expects to get 1.2 trillion in budget support, entirely sourced from budget support loans.During the year, externally financed project funds are expected to rise to 11.3 trillion, comprising 2.83 trillion in project grants, 4.2 trillion in concessional loans, and 4.2 trillion in non-concessional loans.External debt repayments are projected to reduce from 5 trillion shillings in the financial year 2025/26 to 4.2 trillion in 2026/27, “as a result of the government’s deliberate efforts to reduce commercial external borrowing,” according to Musasizi.ATMSThe government will focus on investing in ATMS (Agro-Industrialisation, Tourism, Minerals, including oil and gas, and Science, Technology, and Innovation) to drive growth.In the STI and creatives industries, the government has allocated 1.14 trillion shillings, with priorities on the commercialisation of innovations, especially Kiira Motors vehicles, coffee, Dei BioPharma drugs and vaccines, and banana products; Establishment of a Hi-Tech City; and additional investment in scientific research and innovation.Other priorities are: Expansion of digital infrastructure to increase coverage, reliability, and affordability of internet, Government services and e-commerce, and  Growth of Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) for job creation.Under tourism, the government has allocated 567 billion shillings to continue developing the tourism sector next financial year. The priority interventions will include: Branding and marketing of Uganda as a tourism and investment destination; Tourism infrastructure development; and Construction of highway sanitation facilities and tourism site refreshment centres.Others are: Improving and enforcing hospitality standards and training; Conservation and wildlife protection to increase wildlife population across the National Parks; Health tourism; and  Economic and Commercial Diplomacy.A total of 2.26 trillion shillings has been allocated to the agro-industrialisation programme, the highest allocation ever to this programme. Under this, the ministry targets interventions including agricultural research and innovation, with funding for anti-tick vaccine commercialisation; irrigation and water for production; and extension services with more extension workers facilitation to reach farmers. Others are; provision of quality agricultural inputs; Post-harvest handling and storage; Agro-processing and value addition; quality assurance certification; and Expanding market access.About Post Author
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