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Uganda faces significant economic repercussions if global warming exceeds 2°C, as indicated by a recent study conducted by the Center for Global Development, a Washington D.C. based think tank specializing in international development. The study warns of potential declines in the production of crucial food staples such as maize and beans.
Examining the impact of climate change on various socioeconomic indicators, including economic growth, agricultural productivity, poverty, food security, health, water resources, and the energy sector, the report paints a bleak picture of the future.
It predicts that if current climate change trends persist, crop production in Africa could decrease by 2.9% by 2030 and a staggering 18% by 2050. Consequently, approximately 200 million people may face extreme hunger by 2050, leading to a potential 30% loss in crop revenue and a rise in poverty levels ranging from 20% to 30%.
The prevalence of undernourishment has already increased from 8% in 2019 to 9.8% in 2021, with regions like Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean bearing the brunt. This upward trend in food insecurity could exacerbate with climate change impacting the global food supply chain.
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The report, titled “The Socioeconomic Impact of Climate Change in Developing Countries in the Next Decades: A Review,” compiled by Associate Professor Philip Kofi Adom from the University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa, synthesizes years of climate change research by scientists and researchers.
Highlighting agriculture’s pivotal role in many developing economies, particularly in Africa where 42.5% of the workforce is employed in the sector, the report underscores the vulnerability of these populations to climate variations.
Climate change threatens to diminish farmland and labor productivity, exacerbating food insecurity and poverty levels. The consequences extend beyond economic implications, affecting employment opportunities, income distribution, and overall economic growth.
The report suggests that tackling climate change is imperative to prevent further exacerbation of poverty and food insecurity, especially in Africa, where a significant portion of the population already lives in rural areas and relies on agriculture for livelihoods.
Notably, Uganda faces a potential 6% loss in GDP by 2050 if global warming trends persist. This could result in pushing more individuals below the poverty line, highlighting the urgent need for climate action.
While Uganda is not projected to be the worst-hit by climate change, the study indicates that Malawi, Mauritius, Kenya, and Mozambique in the eastern African region are likely to suffer the most adverse effects in the long term.
The report underscores the urgency of addressing climate change impacts, particularly in vulnerable regions like Africa, to mitigate economic losses and safeguard livelihoods.
Furthermore, the study outlines the multifaceted impacts of climate change on health, water resources, and energy security, emphasizing the interconnectedness of these issues.
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