The Consequences of The ANC’s Electoral ‘Misfortunes’ Beyond South Africa: A Silver Lining

The Consequences of The ANC’s Electoral ‘Misfortunes’ Beyond South Africa: A Silver Lining

BY CHARLES ONYANGO OBBO

South Africa’s latest vote count puts ANC at 40.14%, its worst electoral performance since it came to power in 1994. I will now have to govern with a coalition. With results from 97% of voting centres, the main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, was at 21.7%, while uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK), a new party led by former president Jacob Zuma, had picked up 14.8%.

Though technically it hasn’t been beaten, the ANC is the third liberation party in Africa in the last 25 years to lose a majority or be routed in a vote. The first was the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) in the 1999–2000 elections. The most spectacular liberation party vanishing act happened in Ethiopia in 2019 with the dissolution of one of the most dominant of them, the EPRDF.

It needs to be recognised that the ANC’s loss is partly a result of something laudatory – it the Africa’s liberation party that most believes in things like traditional multiparty politics. With this election, an election political psychological barrier in broader African politics has been crossed: the reality that a liberation party can be beaten, and the world won’t end. In its humiliation, the ANC might have done African democracy one of its greatest services.

Geopolitically, the most far-reaching impact could be in DR Congo, where South Africa leads a regional SADC intervention force in the eastern part of Africa’s second-largest country. South Africa’s opposition has denounced its intervention and called for its army to be withdrawn. That now looks like the likely outcome. Led by South Africa again, SADC is set to withdraw from Mozambique in July, where it was helping fight Islamist rebels in the northern Cabo Delgado. It will leave Rwanda, which has increased its troop presence by over 2,000 personnel, the sole external state player.

SADC’s northern flank could become more exposed than before, and with South Africa’s retreat, several actors will step in to fill the vacuum. It’s too soon to say if that will be for better or worse.

Without a majority, the ANC might govern better, become more accountable, and less corrupt. SA might just recover its mojo, and be the tide that lifts all African boats.

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