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By Ronald Kasirye
As Uganda approaches her sixty-third Independence anniversary, the question echoing across political circles, households, and online platforms remains the same: Can Uganda finally experience a peaceful transition of power?
From the streets of Kampala to the rural villages of Luweero, many Ugandans are hoping that 2026 might mark a new dawn defined not by bloodshed but by ballots. The dream, though fragile, remains alive in a nation where democracy has long been an unfulfilled promise.
> “Uganda has never witnessed a peaceful handover of power since independence,” says Dr. James Okello, a political historian at Makerere University. “Each regime came through violence and left behind deeper scars. If Museveni chose to step down peacefully, it would redefine his legacy and alter Uganda’s political history.”
Museveni’s Long Shadow
At eighty-one years old, Mr. Yoweri Kaguta Museveni stands as one of the world’s longest-serving leaders. He rose to power in 1986 after a five-year guerrilla war that claimed more than 300,000 lives in what is now known as the Luweero Triangle. Nearly four decades later, he remains at the helm, hailed by supporters as a visionary liberator but criticized by opponents as a political glutton unwilling to relinquish control.
Museveni’s National Resistance Movement (NRM) continues to dominate Uganda’s political landscape. Yet, his government faces growing criticism for corruption, poor service delivery, and widening inequality. For many Ugandans, these persistent challenges have turned the so-called “steady progress” slogan into bitter irony.
The 2026 Race That Could Redefine Uganda
The 2026 presidential election promises to be Uganda’s most closely watched contest in decades. The Electoral Commission has confirmed eight candidates, including:
1. Yoweri Kaguta Museveni – National Resistance Movement (NRM)
2. Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu (Bobi Wine) – National Unity Platform (NUP)
3. Kasibante Robert – National Peasant Party (NPP)
4. Mabirizi Joseph – Conservative Party (CP)
5. Nandala Mafabi James Nathan – Forum for Democratic Change (FDC)
6. Mugisha Gregory Muntu Oyera – Alliance for National Transformation (ANT)
7. Munyagwa Mubaraka Sserunga – Common Man’s Party (CMP)
8. Bulira Frank Kabinga – Revolutionary People’s Party (RPP)
Despite the crowded field, analysts point to a two-way race between Museveni and Bobi Wine, the youthful musician turned politician whose populist appeal and social media presence have energized Uganda’s largest voting bloc, the youth.
> “Kyagulanyi’s campaign has transformed politics in Uganda from elite boardrooms to social media streets,” notes Sarah Nabwire, a political analyst based in Toronto. “He represents a generational rebellion against a system that has overstayed its welcome.”
However, many fear the election could again be marred by violence and state intimidation, particularly if the ruling elite sees a real threat to its hold on power.
A Country Trapped Between Hope and History
Since independence in 1962, Uganda has endured a series of violent and abrupt changes in leadership. From Dr. Apollo Milton Obote’s two interrupted presidencies, to Idi Amin’s brutal dictatorship, and the short-lived governments of Professor Yusuf Lule, Godfrey Binaisa, and General Tito Okello Lutwa, Uganda’s political story has been one of instability and repression.
Museveni’s rise in 1986 initially inspired optimism. He promised “fundamental change,” pledging to end corruption and restore democracy. Over time, however, his rule became increasingly authoritarian. The removal of presidential term limits in 2005 and age limits in 2017 further cemented his grip on power.
Uganda’s governance today remains heavily militarized. Critics accuse the regime of using security forces to silence dissent. Corruption scandals continue to plague public institutions, while the education and health sectors struggle under severe neglect.
> “What began as a revolutionary movement has evolved into a system of survival,” says Dr. Patrick Muwonge, a governance expert. “Museveni’s government is now sustained by loyalty networks rather than policy performance.”
The Muhoozi Question
Adding to political uncertainty is the rise of General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, Museveni’s son and former Commander of Land Forces. His public statements and growing political activities have fueled speculation about a possible succession plan. Many Ugandans view this as an attempt to establish a political dynasty.
> “The Muhoozi project blurs the line between state and family,” says lawyer and constitutional scholar Rebecca Namirimu. “It undermines the principle of equal opportunity in leadership and weakens public trust in national institutions.”
This speculation has also raised fears of internal military divisions should the 2026 elections produce a result that threatens the ruling establishment. The question remains whether the military, deeply loyal to Museveni, would allow a peaceful transfer of power if the opposition wins.
The Stakes for Uganda’s Democracy
For more than sixty years, Uganda has struggled to balance stability and freedom. While Museveni’s era brought relative calm compared to the chaos of the 1970s and early 1980s, it also entrenched a culture of impunity and fear.
Today, the country faces an urgent reckoning. Rising unemployment, economic stagnation, and social inequality are pushing citizens, especially the youth, to demand change.
The National Unity Platform (NUP) presents itself as the political alternative capable of restoring accountability, justice, and the rule of law. But its success depends not only on votes, but also on whether the state allows a fair and genuine contest.
A Gift of Legacy
As Uganda marks sixty-three years of independence, some observers suggest that Museveni still has a final opportunity to define his legacy positively.
> “If Museveni chose to hand over power peacefully, it would not be a sign of weakness,” argues Dr. Okello. “It would be a historic act of statesmanship, a gift to the nation and to Africa.”
Whether that happens remains uncertain. What is clear is that Uganda’s political future now depends on the courage of its people, the integrity of its institutions, and the willingness of its leaders to put the nation above personal ambition.
The Final Word
Uganda’s youth are watching. The world is watching. As the nation prepares for the 2026 elections, Ugandans hope that this time ballots, not bullets, will decide their future.
> “The time for change is not tomorrow. It is now,” says Bobi Wine in a recent address. “Our struggle is not against individuals, but against a system that keeps us poor, afraid, and divided.”
After sixty-three years of independence, Uganda stands at a defining crossroads. Whether it becomes a model of peaceful transition in Africa or remains trapped in its past will depend on the choices made in the months ahead.
