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Uganda’s long-awaited oil dream may have hit fresh turbulence after a bombshell audit exposed worrying delays, funding gaps and project setbacks at the country’s powerful oil regulator, raising serious questions about leadership as its founding boss prepares to exit.
A new report from the Office of the Auditor General of Uganda has revealed that critical oil sector projects under the Petroleum Authority of Uganda (PAU) are behind schedule, underfunded and struggling to meet strategic targets — even as the country races toward its first oil.
The findings have put the spotlight squarely on Ernest Rubondo, the founding Executive Director of PAU, who is set to step down after nearly a decade at the helm when his second and final term expires this year August 31.
Lynda Biribonwa is PAU board chairperson.
Rubondo, who took office in September 2016, has overseen Uganda’s petroleum regulator during the crucial transition from exploration into the development phase of the country’s massive oil reserves.
But the Auditor General’s latest findings suggest that beneath the optimism surrounding Uganda’s oil future, there are cracks in the system that cannot be ignored.
At the centre of the controversy are delays in the two flagship oil development projects that are supposed to power Uganda into the league of oil-producing nations.
According to the audit, the Tilenga and Kingfisher oil projects — widely regarded as the backbone of Uganda’s petroleum production plans — are lagging behind schedule.
The report reveals that by the end of the 2024/2025 financial year, the Tilenga project had achieved 57.2% progress, while Kingfisher stood at 70% progress, both falling short of the expected 73.18% target.
The revelation has sparked concern among energy experts who fear that delays in such critical projects could ripple through the country’s broader oil production timeline.
One senior analyst familiar with the sector told RedPepper the numbers should not be taken lightly.
“When flagship projects are already trailing targets at this stage, it raises questions about coordination, planning and regulatory oversight,” the analyst observed.
For a country that has spent nearly two decades preparing to pump its first commercial oil, every delay comes with heavy economic consequences.
But the troubling findings do not stop there.
The Auditor General also flagged a worrying spike in the Authority’s payables, which doubled to UGX 2.102 billion, representing a 100 percent increase from the previous financial year.
These outstanding obligations relate largely to consultancy services for highly technical petroleum activities such as reservoir characterization, geological modelling and simulation studies.
Such services are critical in understanding underground oil reserves and guiding extraction plans.
However, the surge in unpaid invoices raises concerns about financial management within the Authority.
The report further highlights significant financial commitments tied up in prepayments and receivables.
Of the UGX 4.410 billion recorded in this category, a staggering UGX 3.896 billion — representing 88.4 percent — relates to outstanding letters of credit connected to the supply, installation, testing and commissioning of equipment for a modern core store facility.
The facility is meant to house and manage crucial petroleum geological samples, but the slow progress in executing these contractual conditions has raised eyebrows among observers.
Meanwhile, the Authority’s human resource capacity is also under scrutiny.
The audit shows that PAU currently has 223 staff members in place out of an approved establishment of 278 positions, meaning nearly one-fifth of key roles remain unfilled.
Staff turnover has also been noted, with 12 employees leaving in the financial year 2024/2025 and 10 exiting in the previous year.
Experts say staffing gaps in such a highly technical sector can affect operational efficiency, oversight capacity and institutional memory.
More troubling is the slow progress on several strategic projects meant to strengthen Uganda’s oil sector infrastructure.
The audit revealed that the National Petroleum Data Repository Infrastructure Project had only reached 40 percent completion against a target of 100 percent by the end of the financial year.
This repository is supposed to serve as the central nerve centre for storing and managing Uganda’s vast petroleum data — the very information that guides exploration, investment decisions and regulatory oversight.
Delays in completing the repository could affect how efficiently critical oil data is accessed and managed.
Another red flag concerns the National Oil Spill Response and Monitoring Infrastructure Project, a three-year initiative meant to protect the environment from potential oil-related disasters.
Shockingly, the project received only UGX 1.2 billion over three years, representing just 2 percent of the required funding, leaving a massive funding gap of UGX 58.7 billion.
Environmental experts say such a funding gap in an oil spill response system could leave the country dangerously exposed if an accident were to occur.
“If an oil spill happens without adequate monitoring and response systems in place, the environmental consequences could be devastating,” a petroleum governance expert warned.
The audit also uncovered major financial constraints affecting the Authority’s broader strategic vision.
PAU’s five-year strategic plan, which ran until June 30, 2025, required UGX 642.430 billion to fully implement.
However, the Authority received only UGX 311.135 billion, meaning the plan was underfunded by a staggering 51.6 percent.
Such a huge funding gap has inevitably slowed the implementation of key sector initiatives.
The report also followed up on a 2016 Value for Money audit on petroleum data management, which originally examined how petroleum information was being collected, stored and disseminated in Uganda.
In this follow-up assessment, auditors noted that the Authority had made some progress.
Out of the twelve recommendations made in the 2016 report, six were fully implemented while six were only partially implemented.
Among the improvements cited were the development of a Compliance Management System (COMS), the establishment of a modern ICT data centre and the development of several guidelines including a revised Data Management Policy (2022).
The Authority has also developed various digital systems including the Crane Database, which integrates exploration well data with GIS geodatabases and the PAU Factsite.
However, despite these advances, auditors noted that some critical weaknesses persist.
The compliance management system meant to track oil companies’ regulatory obligations is only 70 percent complete and not fully operational.
Meanwhile, challenges remain in staffing, compliance monitoring, long-term data backup and the onboarding of all petroleum data into the national system.
The report warns that unless these gaps are urgently addressed, Uganda risks running a complex petroleum sector without the full technological backbone required to safeguard critical national data.
As these revelations emerge, attention is also turning to the leadership transition looming at PAU.
With Ernest Rubondo preparing to leave office, the race to replace him is quietly shaping up.
Sources within the energy sector say several senior figures inside the Authority are eyeing the powerful position.
Among those reportedly interested are Clovice Irumba Bright, the Director for Exploration, and Alex Nyombi, the Director for Development and Production.
However, impeccable sources indicate that the “powers that be” may prefer to bring in an outsider — possibly someone from the wider energy sector rather than promoting from within the Authority.
Such a move, insiders say, could be aimed at injecting fresh oversight into an institution that is now facing growing scrutiny.
“The next Executive Director will inherit both an opportunity and a challenge,” one industry insider said.
“Uganda is closer than ever to first oil, but the systems managing the sector must be airtight.”
The Auditor General’s report ultimately acknowledges that PAU has made progress in improving petroleum data management and strengthening internal controls.
But it also warns that delays in projects, funding shortages and operational gaps must be addressed urgently if Uganda is to fully realise the promise of its oil resources.
With billions of dollars already invested and expectations sky-high, the stakes could not be higher.
As Rubondo prepares to bow out after ten years steering the regulator, the question now echoing through Uganda’s energy corridors is simple: Will the next leadership fix the cracks — or will the oil dream stumble before the first barrel is even pumped?
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