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Analysis: Factors Behind Delay in Museveni’s Cabinet Reshuffle

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There is growing speculation about Museveni’s impending cabinet reshuffle, but he has instead opted to keep everyone guessing. Traditionally, although not legally required, he tends to make cabinet reshuffles halfway into his five-year term of office. Recently, when he camped at his 2nd Lady’s home in Kisozi, speculation ran rife that he was putting the final touches on a cabinet reshuffle. However, he simply resurfaced with a national address, which turned out to be a diversionary exhibition of the preferential economic empowerment of “his people” in the Cattle Corridor. It’s a fact that he was avoiding his regime party’s NEC meeting.

For over three years, he has deliberately avoided convening the NEC, simply because he wishes to avoid certain members who intend to raise critical issues affecting the party and government. Among such issues is his controversial Muhoozi Project, where he is advocating for his son, Gen. Muhoozi, to inherit the presidency of Uganda. Leading the agitation for a frank discussion of the Muhoozi Project is Gen. Kahinda Otafiire. He is Museveni’s Bush War comrade, a Minister of Internal Affairs, a member of NEC, and commands a significant following from Ankole’s Bairu Community. He is proving to be the sole serious force that is seriously opposed to the Muhoozi Project.

The said scheme currently serves as the sole driving force behind Museveni’s political, economic, social, and diplomatic engagements. It is costing the country vast amounts of resources, as huge sums of taxpayer’s money are pumped into the scheme. In that regard, Museveni is undeterred and will take all necessary maneuvers to ensure its success. One critical maneuver is to neutralize Gen. Otafiire.

He is considering the loud calls from his regime opponents for the sacking of Gen. Otafiire from the influential Ministry of Internal Affairs. However, he is reluctant to do so simply because he wants to act at the right time, after neutralizing the potential negative repercussions from within the security apparatus, the Ankole Bairu community, and the rank and file of his regime party. He is already assembling the militant youth brigade, the YYM under Gen. Kalekyezi, to physically secure the way for Gen. Muhoozi’s countrywide mobilization efforts. Consequently, there is a strong likelihood of more reshuffles within the security circles than the much-anticipated cabinet reshuffle.

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Museveni is avoiding a cabinet reshuffle to demonstrate defiance against Parliament, which impeached some of his cabinet ministers and recommended their sacking. He chose to ignore the parliamentary resolutions, leaving the public to speculate that he would drop them during the cabinet reshuffle. There is an ongoing mischievous so-called merger of ministries, departments, and agencies (MDAs). Aligned with the Muhoozi Project, it is designed to result in the dropping of some leaders and the emergence of others. This is intended to compel hesitant office bearers into total subscription to the Muhoozi Project and to attract fence-sitters. Museveni is systematically militarizing all institutions of government. More serving and retired soldiers who subscribe to the Muhoozi Project are scheduled to take up management positions in different government institutions. The conspicuous silence of individuals like Gen. Ssejusa is based on their MOU with Museveni for assignment to government positions, including the Cabinet lineup.

Recently, there was media speculation about a cabinet reshuffle and lineup. It appeared shallow and most likely the work of either an amateur spinner or the regime itself, possibly to test the waters. Among the individuals listed were the following:

1. Gen. Katumba Wamala was speculated to become the Vice President. However, this scenario seems unlikely due to his status as a top Muganda military officer with a clean service record. Given Museveni’s past accusations against Prof. Gilbert Bukenya of plotting with army officers and the Catholic Church to overthrow him, it’s improbable that he would risk accusing a Muganda General like Katumba Wamala. Nevertheless, due to the significant sums of money involved and the unclear position of the Muhoozi Project, he may lose his current position as Minister of Works. It’s worth noting that he previously survived an assassination attempt, possibly due to his redundancy in terms of military service.

2. Gen. Kalekyezi was speculated to become the Minister of Water. However, he anticipates a more significant role, particularly since he has fully embraced the Muhoozi Project and serves as the patron of its newly formed militant youth brigade, the YYM.

3. Gen. Mugira was speculated to become the Minister of Trade. However, it’s unlikely that he would leave the security sector, given his status as one of Museveni’s top trusted Generals. His prospects within the sector seem to be halfway, as he currently serves as the Managing Director of the army’s NEC industries, overseeing not only the diversion of state coffers but also coordinating Russia’s secret security dealings with Museveni’s Uganda.

4. Gen. Mbadi was speculated to become the Minister of Security. However, he is likely to be sacked from his current figurehead position of army chief to pave the way for Gen. Muhoozi to assume full command of the army. Museveni has recently increased his public criticism of the army over corruption, signaling a potential change in leadership. Nevertheless, Gen. Mbadi may not be suitable for the highly political security docket due to his lack of prowess in the politics of Musevenism.

Therefore, the speculation appears shallow and empty.

INFORMATION IS POWER AND THE PROBLEM OF UGANDA IS MUSEVENISM

Story Source: Peri Of Africa

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